trend-grid :8084 OK

trend resumption after an SMA stall -- P1-14 (turn entry) and P2-14 (fade the 1-ATR stop) on 7 M15 cells; virtual fills, no orders. 2026-10-22T22:02:11Z UTC · up 3 days, 7:07:33 · start 2 · launch 2026-10-19T05:11:06Z · 90 trades · 4 open · 0 closed, awaiting horizon · overview · detail · stats.json · health.json

next look: first session close at which both variants meet >= 300 primary trades and >= 28 days -- not yet. Between looks: numbers only, no verdict.

variants (pooled over 7 cells, equal cell weights, clustered by UTC entry date; primary = untagged trades)

variant	label	n prim / all	days	min evid	x_net	LCB90	UCB90	x_gross	x_bar	cost x	buys	sells	half 1	half 2	x 21:00	as traded
P1-14	no look yet	53 / 53	3	no	-0.904	-1.607	-0.202	-0.824	-0.833	+0.083	-2.460	+0.342	-2.262	-0.439	0.25	-0.904
P2-14	no look yet	37 / 37	3	no	-0.152	-0.749	+0.446	-0.066	-0.066	+0.093	-1.208	+0.956	-1.374	+0.095	0.19	-0.152

cells (unlabelled)

cell	n prim / all	open	x_net	LCB90	UCB90	x_gross	x_bar	buys	sells	flags
US500_P1-14	7 / 7	1	-0.760	-1.646	+0.126	-0.654	-0.626	-0.989	+0.613	bar_revised 5
NAS100_P1-14	5 / 5	0	-1.025	-1.821	-0.229	-0.959	-0.978	-1.640	+1.437	-
BTCUSD_P1-14	9 / 9	1	-0.716	-1.330	-0.102	-0.611	-0.621	-0.735	-0.679	-
XAUUSD_P1-14	6 / 6	0	+0.955	-0.038	+1.948	+0.988	+0.980	-	+0.955	-
GER40_P1-14	8 / 8	0	-3.298	-5.728	-0.868	-3.214	-3.275	-9.249	+0.273	-
US30_P1-14	9 / 9	0	-0.681	-1.609	+0.248	-0.621	-0.616	-1.290	+0.537	-
US2000_P1-14	9 / 9	0	-0.807	-1.535	-0.080	-0.696	-0.694	-0.858	-0.744	bar_revised 1
US500_P2-14	4 / 4	1	+1.630	+0.442	+2.818	+1.740	+1.705	+1.054	+3.356	bar_revised 1
NAS100_P2-14	3 / 3	0	+1.465	-0.295	+3.224	+1.491	+1.493	-0.216	+4.825	-
BTCUSD_P2-14	8 / 8	1	-0.542	-1.211	+0.128	-0.422	-0.411	-0.514	-0.624	-
XAUUSD_P2-14	5 / 5	0	+1.250	+0.894	+1.605	+1.286	+1.303	-	+1.250	-
GER40_P2-14	6 / 6	0	-4.719	-6.641	-2.798	-4.632	-4.631	-7.407	-2.032	-
US30_P2-14	4 / 4	0	+0.922	+0.794	+1.049	+1.014	+1.005	+0.922	-	-
US2000_P2-14	7 / 7	0	-1.067	-1.922	-0.212	-0.941	-0.930	-1.088	-1.039	-

instruments

symbol	last bar	close	SMA	ATR	slope	last turn (area vs threshold)	P2 windows	quote age	spread x / kappa	swap
US500	10-22T20:45	7664.90	7657.06	11.95	+0.407	10-22T20:00 sell 16.63 vs 8.67 QUAL	-	0	0.061 / 0.060	broker -6.39/1.39 PERCENTAGE
NAS100	10-22T20:45	28921.30	28956.26	67.38	-8.129	10-22T14:00 buy -0.83 vs 9.15	-	0	0.023 / 0.037	broker -6.39/1.39 PERCENTAGE
BTCUSD	10-22T21:45	81387.79	81304.65	174.03	+20.699	10-22T21:00 sell 54.35 vs 3.29 QUAL	-	0	0.077 / 0.064	broker -14.0/2.0 PERCENTAGE
XAUUSD	10-22T20:45	4024.21	4030.89	6.17	-1.467	10-22T13:00 buy 0.19 vs 8.66	-	0	0.019 / 0.027	broker -8.0/2.75 PIPS
GER40	10-22T19:45	25382.30	25380.44	29.06	-2.914	10-22T15:00 buy 6.45 vs 10.12	-	7392	0.044 / 0.027	broker -4.94/-0.06 PERCENTAGE
US30	10-22T20:45	52924.00	52857.04	66.17	+6.579	10-22T20:00 sell -1.69 vs 11.13	-	0	0.052 / 0.046	broker -6.39/1.39 PERCENTAGE
US2000	10-22T20:45	2779.20	2778.27	4.69	+0.279	10-22T19:45 sell -1.39 vs 9.69	-	0	0.092 / 0.083	broker -6.39/1.39 PERCENTAGE

open legs

id	side	reference bar	entry fill	bid / ask	bars	state	unrealised x
US500_P1-14_20261022T1800_sell	sell	2026-10-22T18:00Z	2026-10-22T18:15:00.807Z	7652.50 / 7652.90	11	open	-1.308
US500_P2-14_20261022T2000_sell	sell	2026-10-22T20:00Z	2026-10-22T20:15:00.974Z	7666.70 / 7667.10	3	open	-0.358
BTCUSD_P1-14_20261022T2015_sell	sell	2026-10-22T20:15Z	2026-10-22T20:30:00.285Z	81250.95 / 81265.95	6	open	-1.011
BTCUSD_P2-14_20261022T2115_sell	sell	2026-10-22T21:15Z	2026-10-22T21:30:00.198Z	81452.18 / 81467.18	2	open	-0.052

closed trades (newest exit first)

90 closed: 90 final (counted in the statistics) · 0 awaiting horizon (exit filled; tag and statistics once 28 bars after the reference bar are known). x = result in ATR of the reference bar, net = after spread, commission and swap charges; pts = price points. Newest 60 shown; all in the trades CSV (/stats.json: newest 300).

trade	side	entry fill	price	exit fill	price	bars	x net	x gross	pts net	status	tag
BTCUSD P1-14	sell	10-22 15:00:00	81809.74	10-22 18:30:00	81112.03	14	+2.501	+2.555	+697.71	final	ok
XAUUSD P1-14	sell	10-22 13:00:00	4088.11	10-22 16:30:00	4047.62	14	+4.120	+4.135	+40.42	final	ok
US500 P2-14	sell	10-22 12:15:00	7685.5	10-22 15:45:00	7658.2	14	+3.356	+3.405	+27.30	final	ok
NAS100 P2-14	sell	10-22 12:15:00	29348.9	10-22 15:45:00	29105.2	14	+4.825	+4.847	+243.70	final	ok
US30 P1-14	sell	10-22 11:45:01	52625.0	10-22 15:15:00	52708.9	14	-1.352	-1.318	-83.90	final	ok
US2000 P2-14	sell	10-22 11:30:00	2760.8	10-22 15:00:00	2772.2	14	-3.224	-3.139	-11.40	final	ok
US2000 P1-14	sell	10-22 10:45:01	2760.8	10-22 14:15:00	2777.6	14	-4.771	-4.686	-16.80	final	ok
NAS100 P1-14	sell	10-22 10:45:00	29355.2	10-22 14:15:00	29284.8	14	+1.437	+1.460	+70.40	final	ok
GER40 P2-14	sell	10-22 10:45:00	25457.0	10-22 14:15:00	25496.8	14	-0.852	-0.833	-39.80	final	ok
US500 P1-14	sell	10-22 10:45:00	7687.9	10-22 14:15:00	7683.3	14	+0.613	+0.666	+4.60	final	ok
GER40 P1-14	sell	10-22 10:30:00	25436.4	10-22 14:00:00	25569.9	14	-2.595	-2.547	-133.50	final	ok
XAUUSD P2-14	sell	10-22 07:30:00	4093.72	10-22 11:00:00	4080.03	14	+1.542	+1.562	+13.62	final	ok
XAUUSD P1-14	sell	10-22 07:15:00	4098.78	10-22 10:45:00	4087.85	14	+1.255	+1.277	+10.86	final	ok
US2000 P1-14	sell	10-22 03:30:00	2767.9	10-22 07:00:00	2760.9	14	+2.438	+2.542	+7.00	final	ok
US30 P1-14	sell	10-22 02:45:00	52793.7	10-22 06:15:00	52700.8	14	+2.442	+2.495	+92.90	final	ok
GER40 P2-14	buy	10-21 19:00:00	25585.6	10-22 02:45:00	25550.8	14	-1.723	-1.525	-38.31	final	ok
US30 P2-14	buy	10-21 23:15:00	52780.9	10-22 02:45:00	52793.7	14	+0.181	+0.211	+12.80	final	ok
BTCUSD P2-14	buy	10-21 23:15:00	84312.58	10-22 02:45:00	82809.94	14	-8.209	-8.127	-1502.64	final	ok
BTCUSD P1-14	buy	10-21 23:00:00	84402.83	10-22 02:30:00	82884.67	14	-8.538	-8.453	-1518.16	final	ok
US30 P1-14	buy	10-21 22:45:00	52809.0	10-22 02:15:02	52771.8	14	-0.531	-0.502	-37.20	final	ok
GER40 P1-14	buy	10-21 17:00:00	25672.8	10-22 00:45:02	25579.3	14	-2.749	-2.624	-97.02	final	ok
US2000 P2-14	buy	10-21 19:00:01	2777.1	10-21 23:30:00	2767.5	14	-2.551	-2.350	-10.09	final	ok
NAS100 P1-14	buy	10-21 19:00:00	29789.0	10-21 23:30:00	29617.3	14	-3.717	-3.583	-176.99	final	ok
US500 P1-14	buy	10-21 19:00:00	7747.8	10-21 23:30:00	7725.4	14	-2.917	-2.699	-23.78	final	ok
BTCUSD P2-14	buy	10-21 19:00:00	84347.17	10-21 22:30:00	84533.05	14	+0.664	+0.981	+153.08	final	ok
BTCUSD P1-14	buy	10-21 18:45:00	84613.29	10-21 22:15:00	84690.25	14	+0.188	+0.391	+44.05	final	ok
US2000 P1-14	buy	10-21 16:15:00	2783.1	10-21 19:45:00	2781.7	14	-0.255	-0.201	-1.40	final	ok
BTCUSD P2-14	buy	10-21 13:45:00	83578.76	10-21 17:15:00	84341.60	14	+3.288	+3.352	+762.84	final	ok
BTCUSD P1-14	buy	10-21 13:00:00	83410.34	10-21 16:30:00	84655.52	14	+6.376	+6.453	+1245.18	final	ok
US30 P1-14	buy	10-21 11:00:00	52557.7	10-21 14:30:00	52511.4	14	-0.880	-0.822	-46.30	final	ok
US2000 P2-14	buy	10-21 10:15:00	2766.9	10-21 13:45:00	2785.1	14	+5.297	+5.385	+18.20	final	ok
US2000 P1-14	buy	10-21 08:45:01	2770.1	10-21 12:15:00	2780.8	14	+3.575	+3.675	+10.70	final	ok
US30 P2-14	buy	10-21 08:00:00	52570.8	10-21 11:30:00	52613.2	14	+1.060	+1.112	+42.40	final	ok
US30 P1-14	buy	10-21 07:00:00	52541.0	10-21 10:30:00	52515.7	14	-0.753	-0.694	-25.30	final	ok
US500 P1-14	buy	10-21 05:45:00	7735.9	10-21 09:15:00	7724.2	14	-3.132	-3.025	-11.70	final	ok
US500 P2-14	buy	10-21 05:00:00	7737.7	10-21 08:30:00	7732.8	14	-1.478	-1.358	-4.90	final	ok
GER40 P2-14	buy	10-21 04:15:00	25442.9	10-21 07:45:00	25327.7	14	-8.930	-8.736	-115.20	final	ok
NAS100 P2-14	buy	10-21 04:15:00	29727.4	10-21 07:45:00	29712.5	14	-0.329	-0.304	-14.90	final	ok
GER40 P1-14	buy	10-21 04:00:00	25435.8	10-21 07:30:00	25344.2	14	-7.027	-6.881	-91.60	final	ok
NAS100 P1-14	buy	10-21 04:00:00	29745.6	10-21 07:30:00	29741.5	14	-0.089	-0.065	-4.10	final	ok
US500 P1-14	buy	10-21 01:30:00	7739.0	10-21 05:00:00	7737.3	14	-0.291	-0.223	-1.70	final	ok
BTCUSD P2-14	buy	10-21 01:30:00	82879.23	10-21 05:00:00	82722.32	14	-0.827	-0.747	-156.91	final	ok
BTCUSD P1-14	buy	10-21 01:15:00	82783.82	10-21 04:45:00	82690.99	14	-0.499	-0.419	-92.83	final	ok
US30 P2-14	buy	10-21 01:00:00	52551.0	10-21 04:30:00	52587.0	14	+1.244	+1.316	+36.00	final	ok
US2000 P2-14	buy	10-21 00:45:05	2777.5	10-21 04:15:01	2773.5	14	-2.146	-1.985	-4.00	final	ok
US2000 P1-14	buy	10-21 00:45:05	2777.5	10-21 04:15:01	2773.5	14	-2.146	-1.985	-4.00	final	ok
US30 P1-14	buy	10-21 00:45:00	52571.0	10-21 04:15:01	52605.9	14	+1.266	+1.339	+34.90	final	ok
XAUUSD P2-14	sell	10-20 22:15:00	4127.14	10-21 01:45:00	4116.99	14	+2.957	+3.009	+10.08	final	ok
XAUUSD P1-14	sell	10-20 20:30:00	4121.36	10-21 01:00:00	4117.33	14	+1.042	+1.095	+3.96	final	ok
US30 P2-14	buy	10-20 19:30:00	52489.1	10-21 00:00:00	52563.0	14	+1.203	+1.415	+64.61	final	ok
US500 P2-14	buy	10-20 18:45:00	7708.9	10-20 23:15:00	7735.8	14	+2.600	+2.780	+25.54	final	ok
BTCUSD P2-14	buy	10-20 19:30:00	82350.83	10-20 23:00:00	83017.67	14	+2.846	+3.057	+634.81	final	ok
US2000 P1-14	buy	10-20 18:15:00	2778.8	10-20 22:45:05	2778.2	14	-0.185	-0.051	-1.09	final	ok
US500 P1-14	buy	10-20 18:00:00	7724.2	10-20 22:30:00	7743.5	14	+1.428	+1.569	+17.93	final	ok
US30 P1-14	buy	10-20 18:00:00	52550.0	10-20 22:30:00	52614.0	14	+0.646	+0.779	+54.70	final	ok
BTCUSD P1-14	buy	10-20 17:45:00	82733.23	10-20 21:15:00	82858.72	14	+0.228	+0.344	+93.32	final	ok
BTCUSD P2-14	sell	10-20 13:00:00	81502.29	10-20 16:30:00	82386.62	14	-4.000	-3.932	-884.33	final	ok
XAUUSD P2-14	sell	10-20 12:00:00	4124.48	10-20 15:30:00	4134.63	14	-1.792	-1.758	-10.22	final	ok
GER40 P2-14	sell	10-20 11:45:00	25157.8	10-20 15:15:00	25328.5	14	-3.573	-3.554	-170.70	final	ok
BTCUSD P1-14	sell	10-20 11:45:00	81476.38	10-20 15:15:00	82355.15	14	-4.351	-4.154	-878.77	final	ok